American Civilians Openly Discussing Revolution

The Bush speech on Iraq, 10 Jan 2007, has sparked American civilians to openly discuss overthrowing the US government with a violent revolution.

This seems surprising in that discussing illegal activity or planning to forcefully remove the government is illegal. It appears the talk is serious, and the US government is not in a position to credibly enforce the restrictions against a removal of the US leadership.

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We'll have to see how serious the US government is in implementing its martial law plans. Normally, discussions like this would prompt the US government to take some immediate action.

Congress does have a few options which include shutting off funding, impeaching the President, and accepting the US government has a major disaster on its hands.

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Judgments

We judge the talk of revolution is more than idle chatter, but a sense of the American public that despite the DNC control of Congress, they are not serious about protecting the Constitution.

We judge it is possible that US civilians will broaden their public discussion of this, and will expand their calls that the US military stage a coup, or take other action to remove the head of state. We do not believe that the US military will respond to this; however it is known that the discussions are serious inside the Pentagon on staging a coup.

We judge the US civilian population is positively motivated and inspired by the Iraqi insurgency, Taliban, and other entities which provide another form of government.

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US civilians appear to perceive that US combat troops, deployed in Iraq, make in an opportunity to strike the nation's leadership. Although there have not been direct plans openly discussed, we judge that the sentiment is of sufficient concern that the US national Command Authority should be brought into the nexus. US Combatant commanders are not positioned to enforce martial law, and this is known to US civilians.

We judge there are real chances that the American population would support a coup; and that if Congress refuses to remove the President from office, there could be social instability and a revolution in the United States.

These risks tend to increase investment risks in the United States, and would likely encourage nations to transition from dollar-denominated currencies to Euros.