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Friday, October 13, 2006

War Crimes Investigation: RNC Position 2008

There's been some talk of which party may or may not be best positioned for the Presidential elections in 2008.

I'm not clear how anyone can argue either case. There are a number of looming issues which could quickly upset the apple cart.

Ref: Added 15 Oct 06 Other discussion.

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There's been some talk about who may or may not lead the Presidential election in 2008. Although interesting, there are a few considerations before committing to how the RNC or DNC are going to fare. We discuss some of the issues adding to the uncertainty.

(1) November 2006 election

(2) Results of House Ethics Investigation

(3) War crimes prosecution evidence

The above three factors are not necessarily linked. Even if the DNC loses the November election and does not take control of either Chamber, the war crimes prosecutor can continue their work.

One question on the eve of the 2008 election may be: Have the Republicans done what they should?

If the evidence of war crimes mounts, even if there is no DNC-led impeachment, the question for the Senate may be: Do we throw Bush overboard in order to save the party.

Even if the DNC fails to capture control either Chamber, the issue of war crimes investigations may put pressure on the Republicans in the Senate to throw Bush overboard. The Republicans can appear to do anything. Whether they can be convinced to remove the President remains another matter.

Republican rebellions have been a parlor game and a sham. Is there anything that might change this? No, but the Republicans are adept at hiding their losing hand and bluffing.

The RNC isn't likely to respond to anything, or put the interests of the country and Rule of Law before their party.

Despite illegal wars, war crimes, and other Geneva violations, the Republicans in their mind are invincible. Despite 600,000 deaths in Iraq, the RNC suffers no consequences.

Short of nuclear war, it's not clear the Republicans have anything to worry about. They've done well despite war crimes, and it’s not clear anything might appear on the horizon or from outer space to cause a different result.

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Even if the RNC is losing and the DNC controls both chambers, there's the other issue of whether the DNC will or will not effectively rally. The RNC has proven itself adept at encouraging the DNC to reject the DNC interests, and side with the Republicans.

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Suppose the DND does control the House and there are investigations which result in the President and Vice President being impeached. Even if the evidence is high, the Senate is not required to remove the President.

Rather, the Republicans will have to ask: Can we spin the result of the House to make it appear as though it is a partisan result, refuse to remove, and use the House investigation as the basis to advance control and win in 2008.

The Republicans plan to use the November 2006 election as a test: To see whether despite overwhelming odds, they can still win the election.

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It remains to be seen how the House ethics investigation goes. If the investigation is seen as a whitewash, that may backfire on the Republicans.

If the DNC does take control of the House, and the House ethics investigation appears to have been conducted differently, that will raise questions of credibility for the result.

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The challenge to the Republicans is from abroad. The Republicans have no direct power to prevent other nations from conducting war crimes investigations.

It depends how much information the war crimes prosecutors find, and are able to present to The Hague for purposes of convicting members of the Executive and Legislative Branches.

It's premature to decide in 2006 which party may or may not have the best position to control the White House in 2008. Debating the 2008 election prospects in 2006 is a convenient excuse to avoid solving the fundamental governance issues.

A more interesting question might be: Do we want a White House; should there be a further dilution of executive power which has been illegally abused; and should we have another method of governance that produces a marginally better result than war crimes, genocide, and defiance of the Rule of Law and Constitution.