Surprises forecast in Middle East and SW Asia

The odds of a military draft are rising.

How far will America go in the name of freedom? US military forces are already stretched thin, while the US military is unable to meet its recruitment goals.

The US military has long prepared for a high tech war, but is it ready for convoluted battle field conditions: Tanks don't work well in mountains while laser-guided bombs radicalize insurgents.

White House continues to put pressure on analysts, then cherry picks estimates consistent with their decisions.

Yet, despite the pressure, some analysts still forecasting regional instability.

How will PNAC explain away possible unpleasant surprises, inter alia:

Lebanon: Hamas to take the low profile approach until they find the opportunity

DoE SPR: Challenge of oil exports from Caucasus

Pakistan Border instability: Afghanistan's warlords want more power than possible