Constant's pations

If it's more than 30 minutes old, it's not news. It's a blog.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Would the RNC attack their own offices?

We hit the WTC with a modified aircraft -- the perfect way to justify going after the unions is to attack your own offices.

Graphs: Note the following graphs are no longer available; but here is the data used to generate the original graphs: Here.

Table: Scroll down to see it. [There's a gap in the blog, I have no idea why]

Questions for hotline

Here is there number -- ask them. Ref.

Why isn't the FBI taking the lead in the investigation? Although FBI is taking information, unclear why a private organization is also collecting the information.

Why have other points of contact through official channels not succeeded?

Why are local law enforcement officers unable to take this information?

Is this information being collected by a lawfirm; will information be certified under penalty of perjury?

Why are they collecting this information?

How will this information be used?

What government organization will share, disseminate the information collected?

What is the tax status of the organization collecting the information?

Which political organizations has the receiving number contributed?

Who are the principal officers and personnel with controlling authority over budgets in these organizations taking the information?

Compare: Attacks to where Bush is in re the electoral college.


State Date/Poll-Trend AssessmentGraph
1 Huntington, WV02 Sept 2004: RNC downtrend reversed graph
Hazelton, PA11 Sept 2004: RNC behind, closer after/uptrend graph
Mississippi, stolen signsbefore September 28, 2004 "over the weekend"; perhaps Friday 24- Sunday 26 Sept: RNC Ahead by wide margin, limited datagraph
WisconsinLate Sept04; and 5 Oct 04 -- hard to tell, DNC was close in early 04, then gainingGraph
Bellevue30Sep-1Oct 2004: morning of 1 Oct between 2 and 6 am -- RNC behind; DNC dipped after Octobergraph
TNTuesday morning, 5 OCt 2004 -- Converting, then RNC breaks out after attack graph
Orlando, FLOctober 5, 2004 -- Close; DNC falls away after attack Graph
Fairbanks,4-8 Oct 2004, "earlier this week" -- RNC consistently 20-25 points ahead of DNCgraph
Rochester8 Oct 2004, "Friday night" -- RNC rising up to DNC, no data as of attack -- although, RNC gaining as DNC drops off Graph.
Spokane, WAOctober 11, 2004 -- No data in re 11 Octgraph
Flagstaff, AZOctober 21, 2004 -- RNC above DNC, but within margin of error graph
Cincinnati, OHOctober 22, 2004 -- RNC-DNC close, but RNC dipped below DNC graph

Assessment Questions

Are attacks occurring in places where Democrats have a sudden increase in support? [Yes, Wisconsin]

Are attacks occurring in states where Bush is consistently ahead, behind, or close? [Tend to be in areas where there is a convergence, close]

Are the attacks occurring in places where "Democrats are acting out of desperation" -- thereby creating a "plausible basis for the Republicans to accuse Democrats of something"? [Yes, Alaska]

Are attacks occurring in places where "Republicans would be stupid to stage these attacks because they are so far ahead, so it must be Democrats"... [Alaska]

Are there any noticeable changes in the electoral-poll-results after the attacks? [DNC generally takes a hit in the electoral votes]

Does it appear there is any political advantage for the RNC to stage these attacks? [Yes]

If there is a pattern in the attacks [in re Electoral Votes, proximity to swing votes, and the relative-ease of gaining an advantage], where might the next act of vandalism occur in terms of "which states" are likely targets of the RNC?


RNC could fear that the vast number of new voters/newly registered/first time voters are going toward the DNC. One cannot rule out the possibility that these are staged by the RNC to gain sympathy in states where the RNC needs additional sympathy votes to offset the expected high number of DNC "new voters."

Appears possible/could be a method to:

  • Rally undecided voters and uncommitted voters to register and vote against the DNC;

  • Rally the RNC-supporters against the DNC;

  • "Get out the vote" to offset the successful DNC-grass roots efforts; and/or

  • Dissuade conservatives to switch from RNC to DNC.


    There is a reasonable basis to be concerned that the attacks are staged. Recommend independent review to assess the possibility that the RNC is staging these attacks; whether there is credible evidence that could be developed in re voter intimidation.