Constant's pations

If it's more than 30 minutes old, it's not news. It's a blog.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Eastern European Torture: Leak or Sting?

Couple of things caught my eye: She wasn't in operations but the inspector general's office, prompting some to suggest this was a sting; yet why would the UK minister risk a backlash over something that "wasn't real" and what is going on with all the flights . . .

Dana at the WaPo wasn't limited to working only with analysts, but also mentioned senior mangagement; however, we've only had the one firing.

Sweden is getting some speculation.

If this were a sting, Rice's denials should have been emphatic, and closed; yet the denials were not absolute; there were too many open loopholes.

By denying something that was "not true" -- all the while the denied flights proved true -- UK subjected themselves to a backlash.

* * *

Other views

1. Others. Let's suppose this was a sting, then there should be other arrests. Why not keep it quiet while they let the ruse continue, as they gather more evidence, and implicate others?

Response: The US government didn't reveal the sting; it's speculation. So whether it is or is not a sting -- and whether that was known or leaked -- isn't something that the US government is necessarily doing. There could be others, as should be expected since Dana admitted she spoke with many others.

Regardless whether it is a bonafide leak of real activity or a sting on a ruse, there are real people who leaked information that was supposed to be classified. It's one thing to suppress information about criminal activity; it's another thing to manufacture a crime to see who reveals classified information.

. . .

2. Focus. It's unclear why -- if she was actually focuusing on the alleged abuses in Iraq -- why she would have information about Eastern Euroupe. That would seem to be a different issue. It's not credible to belive that a single office would have a cross talk of different issues. Staffs on major investigations regularly go their own ways and do not discuss their specifics.


The inspector General's office in teh CIA is not unique to a specific country, or issue. It deals with anything.

What remains to be udnerstood is Goff's involvement in the decision to shut down the CIA IG review of teh reports. Although the CIA director may have shut things down because of "national security"-arguments, the IG still has the ability to provide immediate concern issues to Congress.

Putting aside that McCarthy went to the press, what remains unclear is what communication within the CIA IG shut down the expected communications with Congress. It is likely that the CIA IG has shut down the reports to Congress, prompting McCarthy to go to the media.

* * *

Let's put aside the issue of the WaPo pulitzer, and focuse excsluively on the Italian prosecution of 22 CIA agents. It appears this was part of a larger effort, and they got caught -- because of their brazen openness -- becuase they did not expect the Itanians to do anything.

Also, consider the issue of the air transports across Switzerland. it is a vilation of the law to fly personnel from Italy to Germany; yet the Swiss were lied to.

The issue isn't "what is needed" but to what extent the US actions -- by violating the law -- have backfired. Some have suggested the US "could have" sipmly treated the prisoners like they did in WWII, and let the world see that they were being treated well.

The US chose abuse, and to violate the law. The US problem is that they not only violted the law, but got got; and now they want to blame others. The Nazi-comparisons are appropriate.

* * *

Preliminary Conclusion

Given the evidence/fact vacuum, we'll have to make some adverse inferences.

We judge:

1. The Rice denials are most damaging in that they are high profile, not absolute; second, the UK's failure to deny/denial trap -- if this were a string -- should not have been invented. Rather, it merely would make it less likely the UK would work with the US on issues of Iran;

2. The CIA detention centers are real, the flights are linked with bonafide illegal activity, and the leaking was related to non-operational information;

3. Dana's sources are reliable; and

4. Sweden does not appear to be linked with the commercial stopovers, but other activity related to bi-lateral agreements between US-Swedish intelligence services, something outside the narrowly-defined program in Eastern Europe.

To be determined

A. Prisoners: Whether they are holding Muslims or also Americans;

B. Other services: Whether the "CIA detention centers" includes also the NAVY sea-based detention centers;

C. Activities: What other Presidential activities the WaPo-connected-CIA-analysts were or were not aware.

D. Definitions: We don't have information on what the WaPo included/excluded in their definition of the "detention centers."

* * *

Cats and Dogs

Her 2003, statement before the 9-11 COmmission was the year after she gave funds in 2002 -- why was this approved; and who missed her support of the DNC in 2003 that "should have" blocked her testimony?

* * *

Warning Analysis [ Ref ]

Note the flaw with warning analysis: They start from an incorrect assumption -- they look at the range of risks, and then develop indicators. This is backwards. It's better to be able to look at information as a single stream, and then see how it fits in with a new jigsaw puzzle.

The prolbem with McCarthy's approach is that it presumes that the hypothesis is accuragely contructured; in fact, the eemy will do what is surprising. They key is to think like "what we are not focusing on".

* * *

McCarthy as born around 1945, she's 61 years old.

What's curious is despite the official privacy policy of not revealing names and in light of the Plame affairs, her name is published.

This says she's married.


[ Neighbors ]

That address goes to a Landscape Architect, Michael J. Murphy: (301) 320-2452; Michael Mccarthy Associates

Michael Mccarthy Associates, (301) 320-2452, 6825 Wilson Ln, Bethesda, MD 20817

What a landscape architect does: [ click ].

Helping Michael pack for work. Help Michael decide whether to take a coat, an umbrella, or shorts: [ Click ] What do you think: Is it going to be windy, and cold; or is it going to be hot and humid?

It's only 42 miles from Michael's near 495 house to where he could get a license renewal, update, or registration in downtown Baltimore, MD.

Problem 1: There is no Michael McCarthy listed as licensed as an "LandScape Architect" [ in this MD database; nor is there a Michale McCarthy Associates listed in This datebase; neither in this VA database. ]

In MD, Call: 1-888-218-5925, or 410-230-6322 if you have questions or information; or send them an e-mail at this link; more contact information for MD is [ here ] [Nationwide, if you want to find out more about your state procedures on State Licensing you can [ go here ]

MD Landscape Architect licensing points of contact: Click ] [ State Regulators: MD Archive ]

We know this is the correct license name because there's a State-run Newsletter for Landscape Architects. The Licensing exam is known as L.A.R.E. for Lanscape Architecture Registation Exam. This is the process. [ What to do: Here ]

For questions about the Montgomery COunty licensing -- the citiy where Bethesda is located -- you can visit here. For background on MD site location consultans, [click].

If you have a concern you can file a complaint [ click ].

* * *

Problem 2: Why are the addresses not consistent? One has her listed as Wilson Lane, the other is Wilson Avenue? [ Click ]

Problem 3: The street address does not match the coordinated provided in the other databases: [ Map ] [ Street]

Route from home to CIA: [ Over 495 ]

* * *

[ Staffing ]

[ Goss Reveals CIA letter head; how many minutes to decloak this address? [ CLick ]

Before, Michael J. Sulick [resigned] and Stephen R. Kappes [resigned?] was Pavitt really a wanker? [ Click ]

All hands, can you clap your hands? [ Click ]

Does that mean that all "government analysts" living in VA and MD work for the CIA; or are they just living there because they are stupid and/or working in the CIA? [Wait, I'm being repetitive.]

Nothing like a really good excercise on 9-11 to confuse everyone. The buildings weren't supposed to fall down. And you belived them. Ha!

Guess who has intercepts of the battle commands issued from Tower 7 before Sept 2001?

Americans are stupid.

* * *

يوم السّبت ، أبريل - نيسان 22 ، 2006
تعذيب شرقيّة أوروبيّة: تسرب أو لدغ ؟

مسك زوج الأشياء عيني: هو [ب] لم في عمليات غير أنّ المفتشة جنرال كان مكتب ، يحضّ بعض أن يقترح هذا لدغ ؛ مع ذلك لما أراد ال [أوك] وزيرة خطر حركة ارتجاعيّة على شيء أنّ "[ب] لم حقيقيّة" وماذا يكون يذهب فوق مع [ألّ ث] رحلات….

لم يحدّ [دنا] في [وبو] كان في فقط يعمل مع محللات.

سويد يحصل بعض مضاربة.

إن هذا كان لدغ ، أرز إنكارات سوفت يتلقّى كنت توكيديّة ، وأغلقت. [ب] الإنكارات لم مطلقة ؛ هناك كان [توو مني] مهربات مفتوحة.

لا عدّلت ب ينكر شيء أنّ كان "" -- [ألّ ث] فترة ال ينكر رحلات يبرهن يصحّ -- يسار [أوك] الناسهم يعرض إلى حركة ارتجاعيّة.

* * *

أخرى منظرات

إستجابة: ال [أوس] لم يكشف حكومة اللدغ ؛ هو مضاربة. هكذا ما إذا هو أو ليس لدغ -- وما إذا عرفت أنّ كان أو تسرّبت -- ليس شيء أنّ ال [أوس] حكومة يكون بالضّرورة يتمّ. هناك استطاع كنت أخرى ، بما أنّ سوفت كنت يتوقّع بما أنّ [دنا] اعترف هو تكلّم مع كثير أخرى.

دون اعتبار ما إذا هو تسرب [بونفيد] من نشاط حقيقيّة أو لدغ على [روس] ، هناك الناس حقيقيّة الذي تسرّب معلومة أنّ كان افترضت أن يكون صنّفت. هو واحدة شيء أن يوقف معلومة حول نشاط إجراميّة ؛ هو آخر شيء أن يصنع جريمة أن يرى الذي يكشف يصنّف معلومة.


2. بؤرة. هو ملوّثة لما -- إن هو كان واقعيّا [فوكوسنغ] على الأسواء مزعومة في العراق -- لما هو تلقّى معلومة حول [إيورووب] شرقيّة. أنّ بدا أن يكون إصدار مختلفة. هو ليس معقولة إلى [بليف] أنّ تلقّى مكتب وحيدة محادثة متقاطعة من إصدارات مختلفة. يذهب ملاكات على تحقيقات كبريات بانتظام هم خاصّة طرق ولا يتناقش مواصفاتهم.


[يحتاج هذا بعض عمل]

* * *

استنتاج تمهيديّة

يعطي البيّنة/حقيقة فراغ ، سيضطرّ نحن جعلت بعض استنتاجات عكسيّة.

نحن نقضي:

نحن نقضي:

1. الأرز إنكارات أكثر ضارّة داخل أنّ هم قطاع جانبيّ عال ، لا مطلقة ؛ ثانية ، ال [أوك] إخفاق أن ينكر/إنكار مصيدة -- إن هذا كان خيط -- سوفت لا يتلقّى يكون اخترعت. بالأحرى ، جعل هو فقط هو أقلّ محتمل ال [أوك] عمل مع ال [أوس] على إصدارات إيران ؛

2. الوكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة توقيف مراكز حقيقيّة ، اقترنت الرحلات مع نشاط [بونفيد] غير شرعيّ ، وال يتسرّب كان ارتبطت إلى معلومة [نون-وبرأيشنل] ؛

3. [دنا] مصادر موثوقة ؛ و

4. لا يظهر سويد أن يكون اقترنت مع ال [ستوبوفر] تجاريّة ، غير أنّ أخرى نشاط يرتبط إلى إتفاقات [بي-لترل] بين [أوس-سوديش] ذكاء خدمات ، شيء خارج ال [نرّوول-دفيند] برنامج في [إسترن يوروب].

أن يكون حددت

[أ.] سجينات: ما إذا يمسك هم [موسليم] أو أيضا أمريكيات ؛

[ب.]. أخرى خدمات: ما إذا ال "وكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة يركّز توقيف" يتضمّن أيضا القوّة بحريّة [س-بسد] توقيف مراكز ؛

[ك.] أنشطة: ماذا أخرى أنشطة رئاسيّة ال [وبو-كنّكتد-س-نلستس] كانوا أو [ب] لم مدركة.

[د.] تعريفات: نحن لا نتلقّى معلومة على ماذا [وبو] تضمّن/يستثني في تعريفهم من ال "توقيف مراكز."

قطات وكلاب

ه 2003 ، بيان قبل أن ال 9-11 كان [كمّيسّيون] السنة عقب هو أعطى أموال في 2002 -- لما كان هذا يوافق ؛ والذي افتقد دعمه من ال [دنك] في 2003 أنّ "سوفت يتلقّى" سدّ شهادته ؟

* * *

تحليل تحذيريّة [مرجع]

لاحظت العيبة مع تحليل تحذيريّة: هم يبدأون من افتراض غيرصحيح -- هم ينظرون في المدى الأخطار ، وبعد ذلك يطوّر مؤشرات. هذا إلى الخلف. هو جيّدة أن يكون يمكن أن ينظر في معلومة كتيار وحيدة ، وبعد ذلك يرى كيف هو يلائم داخل مع [جيغسو بوزّل] جديدة.

ال [برولبم] مع [مكّرثي] مقاربة أنّ يفترض هو أنّ الفرضية [أكّورجلي] [كنتروكتثرد] ؛ [إين فكت] ، يتمّ الإرادة [مي] ماذا يكون يفاجئ. هم يغلقون أن يفكّر مثل "ماذا نحن يكون لا [فوكسنغ] على".

* * *

ماذا يكون فضوليّة على الرغم من ال [بريفسي بوليسي] رسميّة من لا يكشف اسم و [إين ليغت وف] [بلم] شؤون ، نشرت اسمه.

ماذا يكون فضوليّة على الرغم من ال [بريفسي بوليسي] رسميّة من لا يكشف اسم و [إين ليغت وف] [بلم] شؤون ، نشرت اسمه.

هذا يقول قد زوّج هو.


لماذا ليسوا العناوين متوافقة ؟ واحدة يتلقّى ه يعدّد كويلسون درب ، الأخرى يكون ويلسون جادّة ؟ [طقطقة]

أنّ يذهب عنوان إلى [لندسكب رشتكت] ، مايكل [ج.] مورفي: (301) 320-2452 ؛ مايكل [مكّرثي] شريكات

مايكل [مكّرثي] شريكات ، (301) 320-2452 ، 6825 ويلسون [لن] ، [بثسدا] ، [مد] 20817

الشارع لا تلاءم عنوان ال ينسّق يزوّد في الأخرى قاعدة معطيات: [خريطة] [شارع]

طريق من منزل إلى وكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة: [على 495]

[يكشف [غسّ] وكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة حرف رأس ؛ [هوو مني] دقائق إلى [دكلوأك] هذا عنوان ؟ [[كليك]]

قبل ، مايكل [ج.] [سوليك] [يستقال] وإسطفان [ر.] [كبّس] [يستقال ؟] كان [بفيتّ] حقّا [ونكر] ؟ [طقطقة]

كلّ أيادي ، يستطيع أنت صفقت أياديك ؟ [طقطقة]

يتمّ أنّ وسيلة أنّ كلّ "حكومة محللات" يعيش في [فا] و [مد] عمل لالوكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة ؛ أو يكون هم صحيحة يعيشون هناك لأنّ هم يكونون حمقاء [أند/ور] يعمل في الوكالة المخابرات الأمريكيّة ؟ [إنتظار ، يكون أنا تكراريّة.]

لاشيء مثل تمرين عمليّ جيّدة حقّا على 9-11 أن يربك كلّ شخص. لم يفترض البنايات كان أن يسقط إلى أسفل. و [بليفد] هم أنت. [ها]!