Constant's pations

If it's more than 30 minutes old, it's not news. It's a blog.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Iraq: Rummy doesn't ~want~ to believe the numbers and the implications [Draft, no credible US military threat]

If you don't want to face estimates that show your plans are botched, simply deny the estimates, hide the facts, and avoid talking about the implications.

Rummy doesn't like hearing about 200,000 insurgents, because it means they have two problems:
1. Not enough troops in and need a draft; and
2. The US poses no credible military threat of a ground invasion against either Iran or Syria.

Sign of an out-of-control program

  • Spiraling costs
  • Continued schedule delays
  • No reliable information
  • No credible baseline plan
  • Budget revisions change faster than funds allocated

  • DoD's biggest problem was that the US was supposed to be "out" of Iraq well before all this came undone. At the very time that the "plan" called for a withdrawal, the US faces the real prospect of a longer timeline and getting bogged down.

    The planned march into Tehran and Damascus on the PNAC timeline now goes out the window.

    Armed Services Committee

    Strange how the numbers on the insurgents are "bad," but still classified.
    "I don't have a lot of confidence in any of them on that number" --
    Lesson: Garbage is classified. What may be classified may not be reliable or credible. Never let someone "prove" something on the basis of saying, "I can't tell you the truth, it is classified."


  • US admits bungle on insurgency numbers, By Luke Baker in Baghdad
    18Feb05, Sydney Morning Herald. Ref

  • "Estimates on Iraq insurgency unreliable"Ref

  • Rumsfeld doubts Iraq intelligence, BBC Ref